Maersk delivered stronger-than-expected third-quarter results on Thursday but warned that falling freight rates would push its ocean container business into losses in the final quarter of the year, sending its shares lower.
The Danish shipping giant, widely regarded as a bellwether for global trade, reported resilient container demand driven largely by Chinese exports, despite concerns that escalating US tariffs might cool global flows.
Chief executive Vincent Clerc said fears of a sweeping retreat from globalisation were overstated, noting that Chinese exporters were expanding rather than retreating.
He cautioned, however, that the industry faces a period of uncertainty as a wave of new vessel deliveries risks deepening overcapacity and weighing further on rates.
“The big question is what is going to happen in the next three years,” he said. “There is a huge order book and huge uncertainty in the market.”
Maersk raised the lower end of its full-year profit forecast, now expecting underlying EBITDA of between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, compared with previous guidance of $8 billion to $9.5 billion.
The group said global container demand rose between 3 and 5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter and now forecasts 4 per cent growth in 2025, an upgrade from its earlier outlook.
Imports grew across Europe, Africa, Latin America and West Central Asia, while volumes into North America continued to contract, particularly on the China–US trade lane.
Clerc warned that additional vessels entering service in the fourth quarter were likely to push freight rates further below Maersk’s breakeven levels, despite overall market growth.
“It has nothing to do with demand or our relative competitiveness,” he said.
Third-quarter EBITDA fell 44 per cent year-on-year to $2.69 billion but still outperformed analyst expectations of $2.58 billion. Revenue declined 10 per cent to $14.2 billion, beating forecasts of $13.8 billion, as the company braced for what is shaping up to be a challenging end to the year.
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