The container shipping market could face a sharp weakening in 2027 as a surge in new vessel capacity outpaces demand, the world’s largest international shipping association, BIMCO, has warned.
In its September Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, BIMCO said geopolitical disruptions and longer sailing distances are supporting the market in 2026, but the rapidly expanding containership fleet could tip the supply-demand balance next year.
The global fleet has surpassed 34 million TEU after adding 10 million TEU in just five and a half years.
BIMCO expects capacity to grow by 4.6 per cent this year and a further 9 per cent in 2027.
The orderbook stands at more than 14 million TEU, equivalent to about 42 per cent of the existing fleet, while limited ship recycling is expected to provide little relief.
“Disruptions and strong growth in head-haul trades continue to support the container shipping market in 2026, but accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027,” BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said.
Container volumes rose 5.1 per cent year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, driven largely by exports from East and Southeast Asia. Longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope have also tied up vessels and absorbed excess capacity.
However, BIMCO expects supply growth of between 5 and 6 per cent in 2027 under both its scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz, compared with demand growth of just 0.5 to 2.5 per cent if the strait remains closed and 2.5 to 4.5 per cent if normal traffic resumes.
A return to normal Suez Canal operations could add further pressure by reducing sailing distances and freeing vessels to carry more cargo.
BIMCO estimates that a gradual return to Suez routings could reduce ship-demand growth by around five percentage points, with full normalisation potentially leaving demand for ships about 10 per cent lower than if Cape diversions continue.
“While the supply/demand balance has strengthened during 2026, we expect that increased supply growth will drive a weakening of the markets during 2027, especially if a return to Suez Canal routings weakens ship demand,” Rasmussen said.
The outlook leaves container shipping facing a growing fleet at a time when some of the geopolitical disruptions that have helped absorb excess capacity could begin to ease.