Major container ports in the United States have already reached their anticipated peak for import cargo volume this year, signaling a gradual slowdown as the holiday season approaches, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“Cargo volumes will still be strong the rest of the year, but not as high as we expected a month ago,” said the NRF’s Jonathan Gold.
Retailers stocked up early this year to mitigate supply chain labor issues and meet consumer demand. Gold says although shoppers are spending more than last year, the rate of growth has slowed, prompting retailers to focus on balancing supply and demand.
Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, said concerns over inflation and high interest rates, particularly for groceries, automobiles, and mortgages, have led to a slowdown in discretionary spending, which will contribute to the expected decline in retail cargo imports.
According to Global Port Tracker, inbound volume at U.S. ports was projected to reach two million TEUs in August and maintain that level through October. However, August’s imports came in at just 1.96 million TEU, up 2.3% from July and the busiest month of the year so far. Nevertheless, it represented a 13.5% decrease compared to the same period last year. September and October are forecasted to see volumes of 1.94 million TEU, down 4.3% and 3.1% year over year, respectively.
In the second quarter, consumer spending grew 1.8% year over year, lower than the initially estimated 2.3%. The NRF also indicated last month that retail sales for the year may fall at the lower end of the 4%-6% year-over-year growth forecast.
Hackett noted that these trends are already reflected in the operational decisions made by ocean carriers.
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